Constitution Daily average shows Rubio leading candidate buzz

Constitution Daily’s average of four digital sources shows Senator Marco Rubio is leading the online buzz about becoming Mitt Romney’s running mate.

Rubio and Senator Rob Portman are getting the most attention on sites like Google, Facebook and Twitter, and from people who are speculating on gaming and betting sites. Also in the mix are some familiar names – and Tea Party favorite Rand Paul.

To put together our Constitution Daily VP Average, we looked at four different ways to gauge online interest. (Two sources are online speculation or gaming  sites–we don’t endorse such products but we are interested in them as broad indicators.)

First, we took the daily Political Stock Market numbers published on OTUS News, a website co-produced by ABC News and Yahoo!

OTUS News works with Bluefin Labs, a social TV company, to assign stock-market-like numbers to each potential vice presidential nominee, based on Facebook and Twitter interest.

Second, we evaluated at a similar set of numbers on InTrade, an overseas company that lets people speculate on vice presidential candidates by buying shares in a Prediction Market.  InTrade’s speculators have made headlines in recent years, by predicting Donald Rumsfeld’s resignation and George W. Bush’s re-election.

Third, we looked at Ladbrokes, a betting service in Britain that dates back to 1886, which takes “prop” bets on political races. Back in 2008, people on Ladbrokes had pegged Sarah Palin as the third most-likely VP choice by late June for John McCain. (She was selected in August 2008 by McCain.)

And finally, we used Google Insights for Search, a powerful tool that shows the popularity of people searched on Google. We looked at candidates’ overall rank for the past 30 days within the United States, compared with the most-popular person from our group of 22 potential candidates.

To get our Constitution Daily VP average, we ranked each candidate, based on how well they fared within each category.

So here is our average for the week of June 11, 2012, based on data as of early Monday morning. (The lower the average for each person, the higher the poll ranking.)

Position Name Total Rank
1 Marco Rubio 8
2 Rob Portman 12
3 Paul Ryan 20
4 Chris Christie 21
5 Mitch Daniels 22
6 Bobby Jindal 31
7 Bob McDonnell 34
8 Jeb Bush 38
9 Rand Paul 39
9 Tim Pawlenty 39

Still in Contention:  Kelly Ayotte (40), John Thune (45)
Out of the Picture:  David Petraeus, Mary Fallin, Jim DeMint.

Observations

Senator Marco Rubio is still generating the most buzz as Mitt Romney’s running mate. Rubio tops the OTUS News rankings, was the top pick of bettors on Ladbrokes, and the second choice on InTrade.

Senator Rob Portman is the pick of market investors on InTrade, with Rubio a close second. The two possible candidates were far and away the top two picks on InTrade.

Senator Rand Paul and Representative Paul Ryan generated the more search traffic on Google. Paul made headlines on Friday by supporting legalized industrial hemp growing, while Ryan was part of the interest in Wisconsin’s recall battle.

Two other names of note are Governor Mitch Daniels and Governor Bobby Jindal, who were in the same position on Ladbrokes in early June 2012 as Sarah Palin was in late June 2008.

But Paul also had significant interest among the speculators on InTrade and Ladbrokes, and he said last week that “it would be a great honor” to be considered by the Romney team as a vice presidential candidate.

Paul isn’t even ranked on the OTUS Political Stock Market.

Detailed Averages (as of June 11, 2012)

Position Name OTUS InTrade Ladbrokes Google Insight Total Rank
1 Marco Rubio 1 2 1 4 8
2 Rob Portman 2 1 2 7 12
3 Paul Ryan 4 7 7 2 20
4 Chris Christie 6 5 5 5 21
5 Mitch Daniels 5 3 3 11 22
6 Bobby Jindal 13 6 3 9 31
7 Bob McDonnell 7 9 5 13 34
8 Jeb Bush 3 14 15 6 38
9 Rand Paul 17 12 9 1 39
9 Tim Pawlenty 11 4 9 15 39
11 Kelly Ayotte 8 13 7 12 40
12 John Thune 10 8 11 16 45
13 Nikki Haley 14 17 13 8 52
14 Rick Santorum 17 17 16 3 53
15 Susanna Martinez 9 16 12 17 54
16 Mike Huckabee 17 15 16 10 58
17 Brian Sandoval 12 17 13 17 59
18 Cathy McMorris Rodgers 17 10 17 17 61
18 Condoleeza Rice 17 11 16 17 61
20 Jim DeMint 15 17 17 14 63
21 Mary Fallin 16 17 17 17 67
22 David Petraeus 17 17 17 17 68

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