Jun 19

Issue: Elections & Voting RSS

Constitution Daily survey: Rubio still tops, Ayotte and Pawlenty rising



Posted 1 year, 10 months ago.

By

Florida Senator Marco Rubio still leads the online buzz among potential GOP vice presidential candidates, but two other names are picking up online momentum.

In our weekly Constitution Daily VP Average of four online resources, Rubio and Ohio Senator Rob Portman continue to get the most attention among people who speculate about Mitt Romney’s running mate.

The two names moving up the poll are Senator Kelly Ayotte and former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty.

Ayotte, the junior senator from New Hampshire, is a rising star in the GOP and has been making speeches supporting Romney.

Pawlenty has been called Romney’s “attack dog” after dropping his own presidential run last year, and the former candidate is on Romney’s current bus tour.

Portman also appeared with Romney last weekend at an Ohio stop on the bus tour.

But it is still Rubio who is the center of most talk about Romney’s potential running mate.

Falling in our tracking poll was former Florida Governor Jeb Bush.

Bush recently made headlines by flatly rejecting any idea of running in 2012.

Another name that is losing steam is New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who was once considered a favorite to run with Romney.

One name that is getting some buzz among veteran political watchers is former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

Rice will headline a benefit for ShePAC, a new effort to support Republican women candidates, on June 25.

Rice has endorsed Romney and has frequently denied interest in a vice presidential candidacy.

Rank Rank Social InTrade Ladbrokes Google Insight Total Points
(June 18) (June 11) Stock Market
1 1 Marco Rubio 1 2 2 3 8
2 2 Rob Portman 2 1 1 7 11
3 3 Paul Ryan 3 7 6 2 18
4 4 Mitch Daniels 4 5 3 10 22
5 5 Chris Christie 6 4 8 5 23
6 6 Bobby Jindal 13 6 4 7 30
7 10 Tim Pawlenty 11 3 4 15 33
8 11 Kelly Ayotte 7 10 7 11 35
9 7 Bob McDonnell 7 9 9 11 36
10 9 Rand Paul 17 11 9 1 38
11 8 Jeb Bush 5 14 16 6 41
12 12 John Thune 10 11 9 15 45
13 15 Susanna Martinez 7 15 9 15 46
14 13 Nikki Haley 14 17 13 7 51
15 14 Rick Santorum 17 17 16 3 53
16 16 Mike Huckabee 17 16 13 10 56
17 18 C. McMorris Rodgers 17 8 17 15 57
17 17 Brian Sandoval 12 17 13 15 57
19 19 Condoleezza Rice 17 11 17 15 60
19 20 Jim DeMint 15 17 17 11 60
21 21 Mary Fallin 15 17 17 15 64
22 22 David Petraeus 17 17 17 15 66

About Our Average

To put together our Constitution Daily VP Average, we looked at four different ways to gauge online interest. (Two sources are online speculation or gaming  sites–we don’t endorse such products but we are interested in them as broad indicators.)

First, we took the daily Political Stock Market numbers published on OTUS News, a website co-produced by ABC News and Yahoo!

OTUS News works with Bluefin Labs, a social TV company, to assign stock-market-like numbers to each potential vice presidential nominee, based on Facebook and Twitter interest.

Second, we evaluated at a similar set of numbers on InTrade, an overseas company that lets people speculate on vice presidential candidates by buying shares in a Prediction Market.  InTrade’s speculators have made headlines in recent years, by predicting Donald Rumsfeld’s resignation and George W. Bush’s re-election.

Third, we looked at Ladbrokes, a betting service in Britain that dates back to 1886, which takes “prop” bets on political races.

And finally, we used Google Insights for Search, a powerful tool that shows the popularity of people searched on Google. We looked at candidates’ overall rank for the past 30 days within the United States, compared with the most-popular person from our group of 22 potential candidates.

To get our Constitution Daily VP average, we ranked each candidate, based on how well they fared within each category.



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